RIP Bitcoin — March 2021
If there is one thing you can be certain of in this space, it is the availability of graphs.
Personally, it makes my scientist heart very happy. Graphs provide the tools you need to plan for possible Bitcoin death events.
Possible being the operative word here, since my standard piece of advice for any newcomers to this space are as follow:
If you should find yourself in a conversation with a crypto enthusiast and they start a sentence with: “I can tell you with absolute certainty…”, back away carefully, then walk , or run (shoes permitting) really fast.
None of us really know what the future holds for Bitcoin, or as a matter of fact any other cryptocurrency.
This is why predictions (predictions being the operative word) should be made using historical data and future projections using indicators such as moving averages (MA), simple moving averages (SMA), Fibonacci sequences, knowing if a coin is an oscillator or a degenerator.
Are we finding ourselves in a Bitcoin (BTC ) cycle or an altcoin cycle. (I find the Bitcoin rainbow price chart very helpful.)
If you are buying a new coin; who is the developer team behind the coin. What is the current market cap of the coin (There are many places to find this info, but coinmarketcap.com is super user friendly.), which market are they competing with and what is the marker cap of the competitor coin currently. What percentage of that market cap could your chosen coin win over and what is the subsequent price implication.
All of the above are such useful tools and well worth the time to familiarize yourself with, should you see yourself being in this space for a couple of cycles.
If you are a Bitcoin maximalist (There is only but one coin and that is BTC. The rest are all imposters.) or a HODLer (hold on for dear life), you can stop reading and just ignore all the future click bate propaganda.
It is possible to be fully committed to this space and technology and not be, or have any intention of becoming, a trader or be invested in one coin only if you so choose.
Personally, I do not have the stomach to trade, but I do want to stay informed about what is happening with my crypto portfolio and if I should be in a conversation with traders casting a doomsday vote on any of the crypto I hold, I do want to give an educated response and so should you.
During the seven years I have spent within this space there have been a few “catastrophe” events, some not even the most savvy graph expert could see coming.
There has been the Murder of Mt Gox, the slaying of Silk Road and the Big Bitfinex hack season one and two; only to mention a few.
Crash and burn events (also called market retracement/corrects) have been noted in the crypto history books and even on the most professional graph, these just look sad.
After these “catastrophe” events there have been phoenix out of the ashes moments, also called: buying the dips.
Inspired by an opportunity to purchase a deflationary digital gold asset, institutions and Bitcoin Whales (entity holding at least 1000 BTC) use these market panic sell outs to add to their portfolios.
Of late the dips have been shorter and recovery fast, as news of Paypal accepting crypto for payment, Visa to reward clients in crypto, Mastercard and Twitter’s future plans, stimulus checks, the Grayscale BTC stockpile and the famous Elon Effect with Tesla securing 1,5 Billion USD of BTC have not left many a “bargain box” Bitcoins for too long on the open market.
An array of information on all of the above mentioned events can be found with your helpful google search.
Historical data indicates that March is not a good month for Bitcoin. We have however never seen a March with the amount of institutional investment as we currently have. We have not had the thumbs up from the most wealthiest man in the word in a March cycle.
To give you an idea of how far removed we are from historical data — on the 9th of February 2011 BTC reached a new ATH (all time high) of 1USD.
So here I am again about to take that risky phrase and throw it out into the public newcomer space.
Always do your own research. Know your own risk threshold. I highly recommend a little Meyers Briggs self-analysis.
Take some profit on the gains and know your end game.
Know the players involved in each project and coin.
Under no circumstance panic sell. Case and point, our friend, Alexander Lorenzo who sold all his Yearn Finance because of a tiny little hack. Full details of the self-proclaimed blunder at:
Never have yourself in such a tight squeeze that you have to cash out during a dip to put petrol in your car.
Never get too attached to an altcoin. From time to time you will have to count your losses and sell out at a loss.
My personal end game is to at all times accumulate more Bitcoin (BTC).
Below is a list of market leaders and economists whom I follow to stay informed on price shifts, new projects, new technology, world economics and possible “catastrophe” events.
As an added bonus, I have ensured you will land on an interesting and highly educational conversation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFyazbZiqs8 (Altcoin Daily)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwuztBozra4 (The Crypto Lark — Lark Davies)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVUZpWa8vpw (Real Vision Finance)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b12P9HCnWH4 (Rads ACT)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dul7G-dVTic&t=769s (Unchained Podcast)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePJuNUs-JFE (BitBoy Crypto)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SIcS5hJHx0 (Anthony Pompliano)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qeY1n67LUOg (Stansberry Research)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2QzMNC3Kvko (What Bitcoin Did)
I leave with you a little Zen quote in acknowledgement of all the longtime HODLers in our community.
“Breathe in, breathe out. Without the fire, the phoenix never rises from the ashes. Let the fire scorch the skin and burn the soul, allowing yourself to absorb the pain and understand the sincerity of the pain. Breathe in, you are not the past, you are not the future; breathe out, you are simply each breath, the present moment. As you breathe in and breathe out, acknowledge all the trials you have overcome thus far, and that you can continue to overcome all else without doubt. Breathe in, breathe out.”
― Forrest Curran, Purple Buddha Project: Purple Book of Self-Love